January 20, the joint network of funds directly to the International Financial Club held a strategic salon, invited chief GF Securities analyst Guoxian Yin, and the private equity fund, industry professionals, researchers, to explore the 2018 colored plates the most valuable investment Varieties and related sectors stocks.

Non-ferrous metals, can not just look at the needs of China's perspective

For non-ferrous metals demand, most domestic investors and industrial clients are still hovering in the bear market pattern. In response, Ju Guixian believes that the demand for non-ferrous metals can not only stand on the perspective of China. In the process of economic restructuring and upgrading, the demand growth rate has dropped. However, the major economies in the world have shown signs of recovery. Sub-industry transfer opportunities, downturn for many years of non-ferrous metals spring has come.

LME copper prices from 5500 US dollars per ton in early 2017 rose to the current 7000 US dollars, is steadily upward.

Similarly, the price of zinc rose from 1,500 US dollars at the end of 2015 to the current 3,470 US dollars. It also stepped out of a slow market.

Copper and zinc as industrial base metals, the price continued to rise, because the global perspective, the four fundamentals have changed.

Highly concerned about environmental law enforcement on the rise of non-ferrous metals

In the supply-side reform process, the Central Government spare no effort to promote industrial environmental protection. Since July 7 last year, the State Environmental Protection Inspection Team has started the seventh round of enhanced inspection of "2 + 26" cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province and its surrounding areas. 28 inspection teams have inspected 32,408 enterprises Units), of which there are 20,602 enterprises environmental problems, the problem rate of 63.6%.

The central government's emphasis on environmental protection has further aggravated the environmental protection costs of small and medium-sized scattered mining enterprises, making the small and medium-sized mining enterprises facing the situation of shutting down and turning around. To reduce the metal production, to provide price support.

After the reform, the global influence of non-ferrous metal industry increased. In the world's top ten copper, aluminum, lead, zinc smelting enterprises, our country has more than three companies among them. In the first three quarters of 2017, 8244 non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in revenue from principal operations. Total profit increased by 50.9% over the same period of last year. These remaining non-ferrous metals companies have a greater voice in the price.

Belt and Road and the world's fifth major industrial transfer, pushing up non-ferrous demand

Supply-side reform advances to make the industry from low-end to high-end industry restructuring. Small and medium-sized industries will be transferred to foreign countries, the national goal is that in the future, where China's production will be high-quality products or brands. As new energy vehicles gradually brand, and led to copper, nickel and other non-ferrous prices.

At the same time of supply-side reform, the world is embarking on the fifth major industrial transfer. The Belt and Road initiative has shifted some of China's ordinary industries to Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South America and Africa. The great success of the China model has created a powerful driving force in Southeast Asia. Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries are following the Chinese model with rapid growth.

Take a factory as an example. When domestic industries are transferred to Southeast Asia or Southeast Asian countries build their own factories,

However, due to the lack of necessary infrastructure such as power grids and roads in the countries along the line, this part of the construction drive the demand of the countries along the production line.

Although the growth of investment in fixed assets in China's nonferrous metal mines is slowing down, it can not negate the growth of copper in this regard. The amount of copper used in an electric vehicle is ten times that of a traditional vehicle. Coupled with the investment in distribution networks surrounding electric vehicles, domestic demand for copper can not be Small view.

In addition, copper wire, copper cables and air conditioners and other electrical equipment are not only used domestically, but also exported to the world, especially the Belt and Haemi along the country. The biggest increment lies in the Belt and Road, Southeast Asia and other local power plants and power grids.

In addition, internationally, the demand for non-ferrous metals in the world is also on the rise.

Global economic recovery, the demand for non-ferrous metals increased

Macroeconomically, the world's major economies will resume resonance in 2017.

After Trump came to power in 2017, increasing investment in fixed assets and reducing the Obama administration's policy restrictions on resource industries have become the starting point for a new round of heavy asset cycles. The third quarter of the United States GDP annual rate of increase of 3%, higher than the expected 2.5%, is expected in the fourth quarter and 2018 the U.S. economy will continue to grow.

In addition, the European manufacturing PMI for December was initially at 60.6, a record high of 59.7. The euro zone's third quarter GDP was 2.5% of the initial value, expected 2.4%.

The Bank of Japan said Japan's largest manufacturing confidence hit its highest level in 10 years in the third quarter of 2017. Last year, Japan's economy expanded for the seventh consecutive quarter from July to September. It is expected that the economy will continue to grow in the coming year.

The recovery of developed economies such as Europe, the United States, Japan and Japan further stimulated the demand for non-ferrous metals and boosted their prices. However, at a time when the demand for non-ferrous metals in the world is still on the rise, there is a shortage of supply globally.

After years of mining, mining taste declines

Before this wave of metal prices, non-ferrous metal sheet metal prices in the low growth period. Such as zinc prices from 2008 to 2016, within eight years of long-term hovering around 2000 US dollars. After the price of copper exceeded 10 thousand U.S. dollars in 2011, it continued to go down to over 4,000 U.S. dollars in 2016. The price of lead has long been hovering around $ 2,000.

Globally, long-term downturns have resulted in reduced production of mines worldwide and declines in mines after years of mining.

At the moment, though the price goes up, the metal output drops instead. When the price increases for the sale of low-grade mines, most preferred mining low-grade mines. The consequence of this is that, with the same exploitation of one million tons of ore, the tonnage of refined metal has dropped, resulting in a decrease in supply.

One side is the increase in demand, on the other hand, the supply contraction, so in 2018, the price of metal will continue to shock up.

Specifically, if prices continue to rise in the first quarter, it will lead to processing enterprises and other stock replenishment. About six months or so. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2018 or the first quarter of 2019, the replenishment will come to an end. As a result, a wave of deep pullbacks may occur at the time. The deep pullback will leave unflinching people out of the market, which will in turn cause supply shortages.

The price of copper is expected to remain high and supply continues to be in short supply.

From the zinc point of view, galvanized corrosion can not be replaced, zinc regeneration performance is not strong.

Zhao Jing, an analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that overseas mines cut their production in 2015, resulting in a mine expansion of nearly 800,000 tons in 2016. The supply of raw materials contracted to strengthen the metal is expected to strengthen the tight, zinc into a star species, into the 2017 expected to turn into reality, low inventory of zinc and continue to go, the fundamentals of zinc prices continue to rise.

Entered in 2018, zinc logic will be gradually de-stocked from low inventory fermentation to supply and demand shortages, short-term pressure on raw materials still exist or continue to restrict the production of some refineries, superimposed downstream stage replenishment expectations, low inventory of zinc ingot, it is recommended to long Treat mentally. In the second half of the year, the pressure on raw materials is expected to ease gradually. It is estimated that the global concentrate will increase by 700,000 tons and the metal by 300,000 tons throughout the year, narrowing the supply and demand gap and causing the zinc price to decline.

Overall, copper and zinc will be good investment targets by 2018, with copper likely to come out of a slow market in the coming years due to a contraction in global supplies.

In addition to commodities, the corresponding target such as Minmetals Resources, Zijin Mining will be a good choice. One Zijin Mining copper, zinc, gold output ranked first in the listed company, the next two years the performance is expected to usher in rapid growth.